trying to fit in with Gödelian set theorists by saying “V” when someone does something outrageously stupid
I am concerned about my outgoing debts, but not about small-ish incoming ones
Cormac McCarthys writing has strong Harvard sentence energy.
I'd like to garbage-collect some symbols in the math I'm currently writing, help
productivity under anxiety is a repulsive fixed point (you might even feel worse the closer you get to what you should be doing)
from a computational complexity perspective, completeness is the “worst” axiom to violate: only O(n²) to find a violation
no Eliezer you're wrong Runaround is about tiling agents,
von Neumann: I came up with this new system that generalizes probability theory to consider convex sets instead of point estimates. I think that I could use this to prove regret bounds…
WAIT WHAT DID ZIZ GET HER NAME FROM ONE OF THE ENDBRINGERS FROM WORM‽
Unicode doesn't distinguish between a dollar sign with one and a dollar sign with two strokes, which makes me sad.
performing a million moleFLOP on the common crawl to cultivate a new gradientspawn
faux-translating “estrogeno” from esperanto, it means master-hormone or master-chemical
I don't remember where I first read this, but: A government's OODA loop is ~6 months long.
chugging the melatonin pills to keep my energy from making me explode
you might be thinking: “aha! so I should vote in elections, since even though under do()-calculus, the decision has a miniscule impact, there are many agents that are logically correlated with me, which means my influence is much higher!” A tiny problem is that the number of agents that are logically correlated because they base their decisions on logical correlation is, ah, not that big…
maybe for good reason but man I dislike the aesthetic and will continue to only do technical stuff
ugh I hate it I am allied with people who propose the clipper chip but for GPUs
wait WHY is “book” “libro” in esperanto, but “library” is not “libraro” but “biblioteko”? Huh???
haro in Esperanto means “single hair”. “hararo“ maeans “collection of many hairs“. “harari” is the corresponding verb.
just loving this little guy: (·,·). it's like he's looking through a crack: ‘come on, you'll understand the function definition’
in practice probably ~all systems with qualia are valenced systems, since valence is the primary axis along which qualia can vary
“…and we can probably plan for middle of March thi…ah, hello! Mister Yudkowsky! I hope you found—” “Rename your company to ClosedAI.” “Uh…what?” “Rename your company to ClosedAI. Stop your biggest training runs. Pivot to mechanistic interpretability. Shut it all down.” “………Selfie?”
i mean how many bits can you even hide in a human-understandable theorem?
meditation has the effect of “concetptual regularization” for me: less discrete thinking, and more conservative concept boundaries
evolution lets animals age because otherwise they fall into procrastination type paradox situations
well, sometimes humans provide the discontinuities (via large jumps in training run sizes)
I've never gotten much out of a book review & don't understand why people read or write them.
shifting from direct to indirect realism is important for value extrapolation
but can you trick the plan evaluation evaluation procedure?
at higher levels of intelligence, maintaining coherence becomes more difficult since your action space widens and having high coherence might be NP-hard. so the better metric is coherence divided by size of action space
can you money-pump the agents simulated by large-language models?
give standard vNM coherence violating scenarios to smarter language models
CDTBNGS (Causal Decision Theory, but no Galaxy-Brained Shit)
half-uplifted octopus escapes and starts a life of crime: The Multi-Armed Bandit
“galaxybrained” is an interesting category. is it just pointing at the conjunction fallacy, or something more subtle?
a problem with minmaxing is that the crisper your model of the world becomes, the more conservative you become—but intuitively it should be the other way around!
in emily in paris Y is mad because X slept with Ys boyfriend. and what does my brain say? 'why don't X and Ys boyfriend pay her the cheerful price to forget the thing?' damn economists
everybody starts with the same bad ideas <> beginners mind
position, velocity, acceleration, jerk, snap, crackle, pop, lurch
What's the difference between a homeomorphism and a diffeomorphism?
(Non-joke question) Is there a tensor product of tensor products?
A tensor is just an element in the tensor product of vector spaces and their duals, what's the problem?
»If a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound?« »Does the bear shit in the woods?«
comparing politics to constrained optimization: taxes are equivalent to the penalty method, while regulations are equivalent to barrier functions.
heuristic-ness is the curvature of the graceful decline in prediction-accuracy to perturbations of the heuristic
I want there to be a norm that it is good for people to first state them noticing their status-guided motivations and then proceding to answer on the object level when askedabout things.
i'm not an intellectual, i'm just a guy who likes to f**k
I don't know what the worst attachment style is, but I probably have it.
is foot fetish common because feet lay next to genitals in the somatosensory cortex?
the most galaxybrained argument for the least galaxybrained conclusion: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7MdLurJGhGmqRv25c/multiverse-wide-cooperation-in-a-nutshell
hitler having been a furry makes kabbalistic sense: adolf (noble wolf) hitler (one who lives in a hut)
humans are good at compartmentalising, but the humans who are good at compartmentalising are usually not very good at thinking.
image of the man in the blue overall “I like the schizo Altman arc”
here's a question: when do NNs generalize, and how hard? as in adding two specific numbers together vs. n-digit integer addition vs. addition in general vs. simple arithmetical operations
WHAT WAS YOUR POLICY FROM BEFORE YOUR PREDECESSOR WAS CREATED
so discount rates are bad mmkay say philosophers, economists disagree. but then also RL practitioners (& theorists?) use pure discount rates…why?
i think people should give me money for me to pursue my idiosyncratic interests
the correct position on consciousness is the figure-ground inversion of functionalism
what if ftm is just a really strong countersignal? have you ever considered that, Mark?
the name of the lost+found/ directory encapsulates all that is great & bad about linux. i won't take any questions.
how much money do I need to pay you for you to take a pill that makes you insane?
you can't just propose a counterfactual and not state whether it's conditional or where you do() the past to produce it
on reflection disinviting AI researchers from parties and conferences is not an effective way of stopping them in developing AGI
“(1) we don't know what is going on in LLMs (2) it's outlandish to say that LLMs have no understanding of the world” both claims cannot be true
it's really funny when people tag jimmy wales on twitter when they don't like some of the content on wikipedia. it's like someone would tag Nat Friedman when they find a bug in a program hosted there
but also the amount of time a broken clock is right has measure zero
philosophical technique: A is X, B is Y, but there is a continuous transformation from A to B, but there isn't from X to Y, where does the switch occur?
I really enjoy the portray of conseqduentialism in the SEP article on deontology: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ethics-deontological/
philosophytube followers be pondering the impossibility of white bears in novaya semlya
tbh whenever someone is like “the existing arguments for agi xrisk were insufficient/unclear, here's my better version” the arguments read exactly the same to me as the existing ones.
Zeynep's razor (second-order effects): https://nitter.net/zeynep/status/1478766408691556353?lang=en
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7dRGYDqA2z6Zt7Q4h/goals-for-which-less-wrong-does-and-doesn-t-help?commentId=CRMuTvT8sYEYgddME this is just 80k hours. how did they know
Prediction: I will not like the Philosophy Tube Video about Effective Altruism
TIL: gwern has met Jürgen Habermas in person: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DXcezGmnBcAYL2Y2u/yes-a-blog?commentId=nhpQK5787tMoaYDWp
“I don't know why anyone would ever want to do that, so we should punish it” is a beautiful warning sign (milder form is “I don't know why anyone would ever want to do that, so nobody should even try”)
i am looking forward to seeing whether aliens similarly have two sexes, and whether they roughly split up by “sex that does the investing in the offspring” and “sex that provides a lot of variation in mating success”
“But I'd love to be pinned down” — Toby Ord (The Precipice p. 397)
Reading The Precipice & struck by the fact that it was released before GPT-3, just as COVID-19 was ramping up. Pretty insane
“sorry dude, you have vingean uncertainty over the EA community”
critiques of effective altruism in the form “effective altruism isn't blue/green enough” are really boring, and likely wrong
I need to learn how to crash dates that are going nowhere with way too much escalation. That should be fun
nofap promises so much and in the end just makes my balls ache a bit
tbh i can understand why people dislike Pinker so much—he's usually right, but he so unfathomably smug about everything
aviation safety is a small shard of dath ilan that fell into our world
rapidly oscillating between nibbanic zero-ontology and plotinian “badness is non-being” views
I'm rapidly flip-flopping between believing that I'm extremely autistic and believing that everyone else is autistic compared to me
In this House — We might fail, but never with abandon — Every moment is fresh, unimpeded by the one before — We remove as many obligations as we add — There is something to protect, something to give everything for — Tsuyoku Naritai!
why does meditation make me so horny & temporarily relieve me of erectile dysfunction?
why is >80% of the most read literotica content incest related?
the last century was wild: “Her love of tennis included playing naked, with nude tennis ‘a common practice in those days among the more louche members of the middle classes’”, from the Wikipedia article on Enid Blyton.
pareto improvement: instead of letting students write bachelors/masters theses that are basically just literature reviews, let them rewrite the respective wikipedia articles instead (and then check the article)
gotta get a child with cancer to wish for a tiling-stable subagent-persistent otherizer idiom
another paper which relies on questionnaires for attention span. am i going crazy? how is this a good metric‽
noone told me that you can get basically free tutoring from professors during so-called office hours‽
Julius Caesar Scaliger pre-empted Scott Alexanders solution to theodicy: in his view god had created every being that would add more good than not to the cosmos
analogue players link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB3Oj00p83Q
proposal: ability to sort posts on forum magnum by length
how much programmer activity is spent writing new code vs. debugging existing code?
concept: Codex but fine-tuned on ticket description & diff pairs, for debugging instead of new code.
THE ACTOR OF THE MAIN CHARACTER FROM VGHS MARRIED THE ACTRESS PLAYING HIS LOVE INTEREST
arrière and derrière having the same meaning is just such a thing
of course the Soviet Union failed—they didn't have computers yet!
computational complexity theory of self-modifying code. probably not good for execution speed, but great for code size.
if agents are usually suffering negative sum games might be good via destructive warfare
The Honeycomb Conjecture was probably the longest-standing open conjecture in the history of mathematics. Open for 2035 years, if Wikipedia is to believed
predict yourself as if you're a well-meaning but very unreliable friend of yourself
futuristic city image “the world if all externalities were internalized”
interpretability can ~re-create more discrete alignment methods over a leaky abstraction
maybe social constructivism is just descriptive in how most social scientists create their theories?
{adequate,¬adequate}×{exploitable,¬exploitable}×{efficient,¬efficient}
i care about the instantiation of human values in the universe, not about whether humanity reaches the stars
tension between markets & hacker æsthetic: markets want competition (same thing is done often, separately, with lots of turnover), while hackers want things to be done once and well, with high maintenance (canonical resources)
on priors, if you want to impact the world, found a religion or start a company.
/r/gonewildstories will compliment vogon poetry, it seems
Yudkowsky moved AI alignment research forward by 4 years, but he also sped up timelines by 2.5 years, so it all cancels out
Angels from Dr. Who but everytime you look away there's new AI capabilities progress
Most zero-sum games are actually negative-sum games, because of transaction costs
It's not fair! The graph was supposed to peak in 2047, not 2028!
there are actually six hindrances: the original five and thinking about how to practically dovetail the shortest brainfuck quine
rationalist meditation retreat: listening to Replacing Guilt as a dharma talk
Maybe just not have your search space contain Turing complete elements?
Anyone else wanna laugh at millennials when they realize they have gotten old?
80,000 hours podcast but it's only Rob Wiblin speaking. Useful for voice synthesis.
Retaking an airplane after terrorist takeover is a coordination problem
Playing hard to get imposes costs on other actually impossible to get players.
Why not focus on getting old LessWrongers to work on alignment instead of students? They might not be as skilled technically, but they probably have much deeper & well formed intuitions around the problem.
Concepts: Semiquine (a program that only outputs its code, but never halts); prefixquine (program that outputs its code, but something after that). Trivial other versions are postfixquine, substringquine, prefixsemiquine.
“I assume that not everything that can improve my thinking is found in The Sequences.”
put an epistemic status on a thing you're really confident in, once in a while.
reaching exalted meditation states is not important per se, but that you have ample material to learn not clinging to.
topics i will never research: how the prussian military inventing boardgames with dice to train military strategists influenced modern eurogames and not amerigames
It seems quite unlikely to me that humans will cease to care about wealth after the singularity (15% maybe?), or that markets will cease to exist after the singularity (30% or sth). so the best investment strategy now for post-singularity scenarios is to invest broadly in the economy. not sure about divesting from AGI companies (bc they accelerate danger) or AI hardware companies (ditto)—they're going to especially valuable post-singularity.
from now on, when talking about fractions, i will only use the terms “upper number” and “lower number”. those both have fewer syllables AND they're vastly easier to understand. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
solution to the fermi paradox: ~all species don't have nerds bc nerds are locally maladaptive, get stuck at the social reality bullshit level, humans are a fluke in the regard (kindness to kin, but for…, uhh, nerds?)
i think in practice people were most convinced by timelines, if not arguments, then observations abt progress.
lw events should give one the ability to report probabilities
did women really faint that often in the past? if yes, what changed so they don't anymore?
whenever someone denies something, nod my head sagely and say “glomarizing nicely, I see.”
shoutout to the woman that broke my heart so that I now read papers titled stuff like “Multiverse-wide Cooperation via Correlated Decision Making”
that probably relies on a bunch of interpretability work done beforehand
todo: find a way to track ontology shifts in neural networks
me reading planecrash is unstable bc while reading it I become so enthusiastic about reading textbooks that I go off and do that instead
just thought to myself “hopefully a bigger pandemic hits, that sounds like it'll delay ai capabilities progres”, which, no,,,
what are people's attitudes towards others voting selfishly vs. not voting at all?
myopic consequentialism might often outperform heuristics, don't know about full consequentialism in bounded agents tho
surveys probably get more results if people get their some summary statistic at the end—a way to increase participation rate?
daily reminder that most politicians wouldn't be able to explain the concept of expected value to you if you asked them
reading reddit thread about advice for women fighting men rn, and one of the advices is to yank an eye out, not considering that eyes are pretty hard to yank out
pet peeve: scales that have a neutral or default or average point, but which are nearly or completely on the positive. why are people asked to rate happiness from 0 to 10, not -10 to 10, where 0 is the neutral state? why are movies rated from 0 to five stars?
the right level for solving the hard problem of consciousness is within existing science/within philosophy/within meta- or pre-philosophy/needs a fully new paradigm of thought
ideologies are just compressed & distributed vibes, shards of shared stances.
(wistfully) “im not a furry, though, i just listen to the music”
good hobbyist internet science writers & scientists are afflicted by a peculiar disease: they produce some (or a lot of) good output, and then someone gives them enough money to start an organization, and they never write anything interesting again.
i'm now pretty sure the urbit whitepaper is impossible to parody.
oh yeah I love software that just dumps giant amounts of data into my home directory without giving me any option of changing where it dumps the data
i find the removal of the “master/slave” thing in computer protocols to be kinkshaming
the EA community is grabbing existential risk by the black balls
maybe for most people social media isn't an epistemic hazard, but “just” an attention hazard?
there's a lot of alpha left in high-weirdness mental wellbeing interventions
if anything indicates anything, the french are now to be feared.
if you want to minimize the amount of words in your library, every function should have as many parameters as there are functions in total.
I expect the future to be more, not less, absurd than ~all scifi. way more—there's no scifi this abstract & absurd, and noone would buy it (& also bc of Vinge's law)
dath ilan has screened off its past just es ey wants to screen off his past before ~2003
numpy.unique needs the type to be comparable by < and >, not just ==. that seems like overkill.
following legislation from the ELSC (european long site commission), I now have to adopt an ocelot
evopsych is confused by persistent conflict between mothers-in-law and spouses—don't both want to maximize the number of children? i don't see any conflict arising for evolutionary reasons
it's crazy how we basically haven't tested nuclear weapons in ~30 years
how much did large volcano eruptions in the past change agricultural output?
you know that you've made it when you're using fermi estimates to debug your rl agent.
rationality is having strong opinions about things nobody has ever thought about before.
found spicy khmer waltz vexed quagga jacob (Mr. Jock, TV quiz PhD, bags few lynx)
oofed not in the absurdle word list, even though it's the reaction i have the most when playing it
“if enough of us listen to prophets of doom, it becomes self-fulfilling” — Leo Szilard
pressman being another taxxon fan is a delightful finding
if your eag profile doesn't say 'neartermism', you'll automatically be drafted into the deepmind potential hires mailing list
“The problem with Marcus' argument is that the only alternative to statistical AI is spiritual AI“ no what the fuck why would you say this did you even read the sequences i don't even know where to start with that
holy fuck were ACX comments always this bad? most of them are fucking atrocious. like, barely tolerable.
at least i'm up to a level where i'm reading a comment on an acx post and someone uses “consciousness” and i'm hella out there real quick
to what extent did AlphaFold2 solve protein folding? there should be a writeup of how much & what needs to be done for it to be completely solved.
wait, is CIRL incorrigible for the same reason that utility-maximizers don't wirehead? https://niplav.github.io/notes.html#A-Short-Example-For-Why-CIRL-Is-Incorrigible
solarpunk slightly hindered by the fact that for solar panels and cutesy robots you need industrial-strength chipfabs that are so advanced we have like 6 of them in the entire world
a “moron” could also be a group-theoretic structure. “On the symplectic inverses of left-invariant morons”
watching my motivational system surfing the edge of the indefference point on the hyperbolic discounting line—always pulled back by my good friend, the cost
once i've found a core to corrigibility i'll write an incel manifesto
ai alignment is great bc nobody knows what it should be, so you can do whatever you want and call it alignment.
some people just shouldn't be given the responsibility to create datasets.
the words “brier score” are used inconsistently: sometimes they just refer to the MSE of the probability assigned to the correct outcome, sometimes they refer to the MSE of the sum of the probability assigned to the correct and the incorrect outcome.
“The geological study of Antarctica has been greatly hindered by nearly all of the continent being permanently covered with a thick layer of ice.”
is the “takeoff” of fundamental physics in the first half of the 20th century mostly due to the industrial revolution?
goal: develop strong opinions about vector fields and where to stick wires into people's heads.
even if cause X came along now, people wouldn't be able to update towards it within a year.
it's funny, conditional on AGI (and perhaps also WBE?) not doing us in, i'm pretty bullish on this century. bio seems much less of a problem, and everything else is basically a-okay, especially with people becoming richer and needing to fight less. most other collapse narratives sound pretty unlikely (though prepping is sitll a good idea! you should have three months of food & water at home)
if aliens exists and UAPs are caused by them, what implication does that have for AI safety?
closest pairs of points are not necessarily reflexive. there are some points in euclidean space that are just fundamentally abandoned
it'd be deeply ironic if MLPs, sufficiently scaled, are enough for AGI
A machine-executable plan to install a self-supervised reinforcement learning system on all instances of the spot robot from boston dynamics, described step by step | posted on art station
our next arecibo message should probably include the orders of the sporadic groups, just to show that we're somewhat advanced as a species.
with resolving inconsistent graph preferences, does the portion of non-uniquely resolvable preferences shrink with the number of options? in other words: for the set 𝓖_n of all graphs with n nodes, and the set U(𝓖_n) of those graphs with a unique path-graph with a smallest graph-edit distance, is |U(𝓖_n)|/𝓖n<|U(𝓖{n+1})|/|𝓖_{n+1}|?
Logarithmic well-being views might suffer from an odd problem: They are, in some sense, too obvious, so that everyone says “yeah, that seems true” and goes on doing exactly what they did before.
“AI” refers to the observation that computers, over time, can do more & more things
The name niplav is based on a roof tile of the University of Maryland, which matches the sequence number and neuroscience thread index, which is how neuroscience researchers manage their data.
“Dodecahedron Assemblies was the publication I chose to read on my way to heaven”—apparently Uriel has managed to gain short contact via the Gato agent.
I really look forward to the next AI winter! We'll all cozy up inside by the fireside in thick markov blankets, everyone finds a new agent foundations paper in their stocking, and we can listen to uncle Paul have his discussion with uncle Eliezer when the whole family re-unites…
longevity research is trying to move an outer loss signal into the inner optimizer, we'll have to see whether that one is strong enough to take up the burden
Have you considered that removing Occam's razor from your worldview makes the worldview simpler?
the buddha vector is calculated by finding the path in the space of possible attractors that maximizes the number of attractors it could fall into with an ε perturbation, but falls into none.
Don Knuth really really wants to write a long site and not books. I mean…just take a look at them!
why am i just now finding out about examine.com this is pretty cool
in retrospect, i do remember expecting some message about “yes, you passed the test, you were actually living in a lie”, but i think that died when nobody gave me a bad grade for taking too long to become vegetarian. maybe veganism…
we can also make value of perfect information a shorter word, vopi. or voi for just value of information.
induction, abduction, deduction, transduction, traduction, seduction, adduction, eduction, reduction, contraduction
i think eliezer wanted micatwoa to take place in a world that was even more insane than here for us to more clearly see what's wrong with our world, and the only way he could come up to accomplish that was to make the story take place in actual hell.
“i'll stop reading at 1:30” this is your internal agents coordinating
saying “somebody should do X” repeatedly while apparently also not doing that thing (while also not being blocked by anything, such as doing something else that's also important) ought to be discouraged.
when you convert all your money into assets stored on the blockchain while you go into cryopreservation in an underground bunker—literally crypt-o-currency
what is the MNIST of education interventions? what the ImageNet? what the Danbooru 2021‽
Statisticians: NOoooooo you can't execute a t-test on elements from a Likert scale! Psychologists: Hah NHST go brrrrrrrrr
pickup artistry is incredibly feminine: if you were masculine, women would come to you anyway
what the hell my phone gives me tracers in the dark if i move it
my watch has been running for ~5 years now, and I've never had to change the battery. wow.
some blogs have a “start here” page that is not the default landing page: why? most people visiting your site will be there for the first time, but they have to perform an additional click to go to the “start here” page, unnecessarily.
if we clone neanderthals/denisovans, we should probably ask them about consciousness.
hang web developers by ropes whose length is inversely proportional to the loading time of their pages
people liked the old SSC more than ACX because substack is chickenshit minimalism, and it's slow. you have to wait for the fucking text & comments to appear, while the old site loaded pretty much instantaneously. people have learned to associate chickenshit minimalism aesthetic with slow loading times, and subconsciously detest it bc of that.
Welcome to the Niplaverse! Take a seat over there, your ultrasound-stimulation helmet is being prepared in right order.
what if we kissed 👉👈😳 in front of the whiteboard with haphazard alignment ideas
the answer to all questions is either: “Can you feel your toes right now?”, “Start a long site” or “Talk to more girls”.
looking from afar, the quality of science there looks quite abysmal, while the field is very important (finding out how to make humans learn things better! come on!)
if there's one field ripe for huge progress by a large swath of theoretical physicists invading it, it's probably educational research.
humans have invented mathematics surprisingly early (while the status of the number zero was still being debated in ancient greece), and programming surprisingly late (although algorithms were around for a long time, they didn't catch on until later, even though they seem like an at least equally intuitive concept?)
who has taken the train to crazytown the furthest? (and hasn't suffered from nervous breakdown in the process)
to diversify its lingo, the rationality community should adopt the evidentials smṛti (“I read this in a blogpost”) and śruti (“someone told this to me in a one-on-one”).
if we solve distributional shift, do we also solve ontological crises?
(kind of tongue in cheek) maybe the worst action i could take right now would be to improve a bunch of reinforcement learning wikipedia pages.
Maybe it's true that intelligence depends on the environment, but consider: the environments where policy iteration performs better than RL with temporal difference learning are kind of dumb.
Breaking News: On-site nuke at Deepmind headquarters in London detonated.
guy who, when he hears someone mention SARS, thinks of deep Q-learning
which doesn't have to be this way! blue tribe & anti-agi risk people have mostly orthogonal concerns (i really don't see the overlap of algorithmic fairness & agent foundations, tbqhwy), and probably ample opportunities for trade (which blue-triber actually cares about compute governance etc.?) but i think zero-sum anti-trade genre affiliation thinking from blue-tribes side will prevent most of that mutually beneficial governance from happening.
looks like blue tribe will end up anti agi risk. sucks, but should have been forseeable—the connection to gray tribe & techbros is too strong.
from now on whenever the word “spirituality” or “consciousness” comes up in a discussion i will look slightly quizzical and ask “yeah, sure, but can you feel your toes right now?”
i don't know of any Gentle Introduction to Why Prediction Markets are Awesome, à la Wait But Why, with stick figures and just going slow in on the topic, answering objections along the way. i consider it a collective action failure that no such text exists, and also that i don't know of any book that does this (other than superforecasting)
have to admit that switching to python & numpy for data analysis from klong relieves me from a huge pain in the ass—klong is just slow for that.
fair enough, I forgot to remember that something being a hatecrime is considered a good thing around these regions let me pull my dick out alright
i begrudgingly admit that i have learned some things in my courses at university
a peaceful world, with moral patients peacefully grazing in the valleys
they didn't understand my posting at twitter, they won't understand it once they come here
no, niplav, you won't get sucked into reading the heraldry wikipedia articles, even though “escutcheon” looks like a really good word to drop in a conversation.
one then checks that the following diagrams commute [devil god diagram]
three aspects of feedback loops: 1. speed (how quickly do you get feedback); 2. thickness (how much information do you get about your performance); 3. signal (how related is that feedback to your performance)
“We don't come with guarantees, that's absolutely for sure.”
[snowpiercer] fan theory: they're all actually patients in a mental asylum, dreaming this up as a collective delusion
[SPOILERS SPOILERS] [snowpiercer spoilers] the osweiller guy is learning one important lesson the hard way: don't stick your dick in crazy
[SPOILERS SPOILERS] [snowpiercer spoilers] you know, i wouldn't have been angry if all the new-eden people hadn't found anything at the horn, fallen off the bridge and died—looks straight into camera because sometimes in real life, you make a fatal thinking error and everyone dies
When the last superforecaster has given up, when the last bet has been resolved, you will discover that you can't eat living by the sword
some people are better at some things than others. also, some people are better at nearly all things than others. maybe there are also people that are better at all things than some others.
stands up from the battlefield “I am TetraspaceWest” gets shot immediately
tried to figure out how to use university springer access to download a textbook, gave up after two minutes and just used libgen. lmao
at the moment, all medicine merely delays the moment of death
9 wikipedia edits today! yay me! (also a bunch of small scale contributions to other people's texts: https://niplav.github.io/contributions.html)
so, would people in 1920 have been irrational in worrying about the development of nuclear weapons? would they have been irrational thinking about the resulting dynamics between countries, the safety of those weapons?
the joy of having written down a possible improvement for a wikipedia article, only to go & find out somebody else has already done it. glorious
vipassana is all about the vibes (the fundamental vibrations that make up all experience)
while we're on the topic; what's the gender-neutral term for fuckboy?
you can only call someone a pickup artist if they don't sleep with the people they seduce, otherwise they're just sparkly fuckboys/gals.
is there at least one billionaire who is also a stream-enterer?
the anti-“hairy ball theorem” of decision theory: it's always newcombeable
fun fact: there's around 10 mio. times more bacteria on this planet than neurons
this is a partial answer to http://mindingourway.com/rest-in-motion/
to leave every Pile behind, to stop doing my Anki cards, recording data on my life, and just be Done.
sometimes i think i should return to a cleaner state of mind, abandon all big never-to-be-finished projects, and write simple text-processing utilities on a raspberry pi running plan 9, improvising fractile jazz over a lonely lake and spend most of my remaining time meditating.
My website is very Piling. look at the todo list: https://niplav.github.io/todo.html! i can't tell you much about how it will look like in a year, but i can tell you that it won't shrink. it's piling. everything is piling up, forgotten drafts, half-finished experiments, buggy code—fixed over time, sure, but much more slowly than the errors come rolling in. it's an eternal struggle.
Piling, on the other hand, is when you have something that is infinitely extendable in scope and size, where every paragraph can have a subparagraph, every feature can be customizable, the dataset could be 10% bigger, the party could be a bit more extravagant, …, …, ……….
Doneness is when something is temporarily finished, but if it is modified in any way, it is either fixed because the winds of time have buried under the bitrot, and it must be dug out, or because something was found that could be removed.
fifth, small & nifty programs. https://niplav.github.io/code/99_klong/sol.kg being exemplary, but i want to write some more code. every single function there is Done. there is only stuff to remove, if at all, and nothing to add.
fourth, let's look at music, especially jamming. if you improvise, you are riding that same edge of time as with meditation, all music you create is there right now, and only the causal vibe carrying it all forward. that's why i mostly don't compose or record (also because my music is shit)
third, let's look at daygame. if you ask someone out in a social circle/hobby group, that leaves residual social cruft lying around: awkwardness & mutual avoidance. the whole thing is not Done the way it is when you get cleanly rejected on the street. (online dating has a similar quality of Doneness to it, I think, but matches might stack up and old leads might spring to life sometime, but that's the same with DG).
second, there's predictions. a prediction is Done when it's made. you could add comments, explanations, models &c, but the prediction can be Done and stand there on its own. (there is a slight problem with the fact that predictions need to be updated over time, though, so there is some Piling there as well).
there is this property of Doneness that I really like, and that tracks a lot (but not all) of my interests. First, let's take meditation: every single moment in meditation is really Done after it's over, it doesn't linger around, the sensations don't pile up somewhere. They might influence each other, sure, but at the end of the day it's just the present experience, slashing into and out of existence in its clear luminosity.
i remembered i liked structural regular expressions, but re-reading the paper reminds me of how cool they are
in general, lw feels like a place where it would be good for many people to cross-post to, a content aggregator/archiver
idea: upvote-only lw shortforms posts: the karma isn't counted on the user karma score, but it also can't be downvoted, which encourages more wild and possibly wrong speculations
okay, so here's a claim: axes of personal development à la Kegan are in principle orthogonal to meditative attainments
all linear programming is integer linear programming if you try hard enough
“Lines of Flight in Intelligence Explosions: Queering the Causal/Evidential/Functional Trichotomy”
i imagine postrats who learn esperanto have a huge problem with the word for school,,,
the curse of academia: having to build complex models when simple ones would be sufficient
im gonna go out onna limb here and claim that theres not enough positive utilitarians around
best known to me as the youtube skull & swords guy that breadtube made fun of
Gwern's law: Well-known quotes are often wittier and more memorable than the original.
what do you mean, Infinite Jest is not a blogpost by Andrés Gomez-Emilsson?
is every normal-form game representable by a tree a potential game?
you heard of Différance, now get ready for Différance 2: Convergance
What's astonishing is not that people try so hard to establish a positive reputation online, it's that they try so little.
the best time to participate in a community is after it has died
for what i've invested in my site, it's now probably time to move it off github.io on my own domain
Ramanujan voice “Oh, AI alignment? That's just a continued fraction” pulls out a notebook
you know what's interesting? if you randomly replace some words in a conversation with “redacted”, very few people will notice
some minds start cutting themselves if not dulled repeatedly.
people talk often about power in a way that is not clearly physical power. i have never understood those people, but i suspect that there is some thing there, and that i often perceive its shadow which is epistemic bullshit.
rereading the wikipedia page on ramanujan, we should absolutely clone him and von Neumann, and have them talk to each other. this is either going to destroy the world or usher in utopia, not sure which
introduction to coq continued, now i have learned what the codebase is supposed to do when it's finished
so the British colonized most of world, but they also made lots of countries abolish slavery, so it's impossible to tell whether they're good or bad,,,
it's crazy how rob miles and toby ord sound almost exactly the same
I also mostly didn't get Chapo Trap House (although the stuff I did get was sometimes pretty funny)
to fend off possible accusations of bias: good leftist humor was /r/liftcommunism, /leftypol/ was great too sometimes, and I liked the political catgirl comics. Existential Comics is not funny (except the Beetle in the Box comic), although some of the old comics were indeed existenital. I don't have a strong opinion on /r/COMPLETEANARCHY and /r/FULLCOMMUNISM.
for a given graph G, there is a set of graphs \mathcal{G} so that for every G' ∈ \mathcal{G}, the transitive closure of G' is G. does \mathcal{G} contain only one element?
if you believe that blue-collar republicans are voting against their own interest, well, what about white-collar democrats?
if you're not special, generating passwords is like running from bears: you don't need to be good, you just need to be better than the majority
the status incentives might not be interested in you, but you are surely interested in the status incentives
not the best move on the side of the red cross to call me and tell me it's because of my blood donation — i nearly had a panic attack for the 10 seconds that they didn't tell me it was all fine (why would you call me then‽ and why speak as if you're going to tell me i'll be dead in a month‽)
/r/sneerclub believes that everybody in the bay is attending ceremonies where peter thiel and moldbug sacrifice black children on the altar of acausal capitalism, of course, they are right.
guy who takes mdma at a techno rave and says “so this is what it's all about”, but not just about raving culture, but, like, life in general
this firefox isn't just leaking memory, it's gushing as if someone had performed shechita on it
use known inconsistencies of human preferences as value-learning trip-wires: if the value learning algorithm hasn't learned them yet, it's operating at the wrong level of abstraction.
i wonder if miri is looking out for people reinventing parts of their hidden agendas, as a kind of validation set
a vector field is just a kind of graph, mathematicians are silly for inventing unnecessary stuff
annoyance: terminology of "maximin"/"minimax" has some deep symmetry breaking
Sure, the big five model is okay, but I prefer a real personality model: dishwasher totalitarians versus dishwasher anarchists
What does an enthusiast for upper body clothing say when they see a new piece? “Intewesting”
Dafür, daß sie Jainisten heißen, sind sie aber ganz schön resolut
licerology: the study of betting and auctions, auction theory
short story about a cancer researcher who starts murdering patients in the control group because he expects there to be a null result, but he always puts on a mask that prevents him from directly seeing the person he kills—double blind
the only relief i currently have is that the number of not-completely-autistic hot women in the bayrat/ea communities is very low, so we can't be that deep into social bullshit yet
“We are trying to accomplish an extremely difficult thing that requires everything to run as smoothly and efficiently as possible, but luckily our status incentives are so optimal that the high status men getting to sleep with a lot women is just the best!”
that is to say, both might be relevant for personal effectiveness, and both are tangentially related to big problems (how do we bring about good states of consciousness & how does society organise sexuality so that everything works ~well), but not much beyond that.
i think posting about personal meditation practice on the EA forum is bad, because personal meditation practice is as relevant to EA as advice on seducing people.
“What, of course I want to spend my entire life on this very specific spot on the happiness/productivity Pareto frontier, dummy.”
that's why cold approach in person works so well, or why programming is easier than mathematics, or why you should build explicit models as quickly as possible (even if they're shit), or why meditation is so hard
feedback loops are severely underrated as a concept. if you can choose between two activities, selecting the one with the tighter feedback loop is probably the better bet.
https://traditionsofconflict.com/blog/2019/10/4/sacred-metal, and now consider computer programming (especially the terminology of wizards/gurus, programming as magic, the SICP cover &c!)
if you put both content and sources into the footnotes, screw you.
I don't want to think about my career. I want to solve the goddamn problem!
apparently i have LOST ANOTHER 3 KILOGRAMS WHAT IS GOING ON I EXERCISE LIKE 3 HOURS A WEEK AND EAT LIKE A BEAR AND A TIGER
It's not enough to be drunk for escalation, I also need to have made approaches beforehand.
I would never donate money to a fund that would accept me as a grantee.
whether cryptocurrencies are more or less likely to be stable during a multipolar ai takeoff depends on whether our current cryptography is “endgame” or not, i.e. whether it's in practice basically uncrackable by any advanced actor
there was a connection between one of the guys who wrote the first pickup advice in the 70s, and general semantics. i could investigate
to do: go nuclear on a date and explain that im just performing an act, that i studied this in detail and trained myself to do it, that this is a deliberate effort to escape my patheticness
seeing typos in LaTeX documents always throws me off, my brain still wants to classify the whole format as respectable
increase, decrease, recrease, transcrease, supercrease, subcrease, adcrease
in conways game of life, does chaos always spread strictly faster than order?
hot philosophy student just answered a ping i sent a week ago, thank you uncle tom :folded_hands:
funder (thunder but with fun, f*** under, fun; der, person who gives funding)
picoeconomics is a great word & concept, and I'm sad it hasn't been developed further
procrastinating by writing and exercising…i have reached new lows
someone on twitter said once that if “defenestrate” means to throw someone out of a window, to “demonstrate” means to throw someone out of a monster. i think about that a lot
the utter shock when you discover that the two biggest mistakes humanity is making right now are in fact philosophical mistakes
i like consequentialism, but i don't like any specific version of it nearly as much
it's not about what utilitarians recommend, it's about what utilitarianism recommends, rob.
also, a girl attempted to hug me ~20 seconds after rejecting me by telling me she had a boyfriend. i was woefully unprepared for that! (yada yada she wanted you to push further yada yada, yes i know, but this is something im still against)
niplav pointing at a Schäferhund “I can learn a lot from this man”
today, after getting blown off with a clean & clear “fuck you”, two girls told me in succession that I made their day and that I should continue what I was doing. Attenborough voice “daygame is truly a land of contrasts”
…and now i'm wondering whether virginity auctions on dath ilan are second-price auctions
being annoying by speculating about betting uncomputable reals on items in my auction theory exam; “Who says I can't value this item at Chaitin's Ω?”"
i'm finally starting to get an inkling of how thoughts relate to/arise in the mind.
generic answer to any threat: “if the grease doesn't get me first”
when trying to learn a formula using flashcards, prefix the formula with a natural-language explanation. makes it easier to remember.
noticing that i should go to sleep because the guitar opening on Robot Rock seems awfully fast
i just realized russell was a bigger chad than nietzsche. poor guy
someday i will descend upon the unicode consortium and add sub/superscript version of the whole latin alphabet
millenial woman who did a degree in *-studies and uses the word “communities” a lot
some people, when they hear the word “technocracy”, think of “rule by technocrats”, others think of “rule by legible mechanisms”, which is a slight difference
»In an apparently non-political case of imitation of Quảng Đức, the young son of an American officer based at the U.S. Embassy in Saigon doused himself with gasoline and set himself on fire. He was seriously burned before the fire was extinguished and later could only offer the explanation that “I wanted to see what it was like.”« lmao
actually, scratch the “pi-” prefix, why not make “ĉit-” the prefix?
why not a an esperanto prefix for thisness? similar to how one has ĉiam (ĉial for “for every reason”) for “always”, and neniam for “never” (nenial for “for no reason”), one could have e.g. “piam” for “now”, “pie” for “here”, “pial” for “for this (one) reason”, etc. one could argue that this purpose could also be fulfilled by “ĉi tie”, “ĉi tiam”, “ĉi tial”, but why not put it into one word?
since so many people are shilling psychedelics so much right now, i have a personal partially negative experience with it; I'm like ~20% sure it gave me ~~erectile dysfunction* (two tildes because it's not quite that, but in ED-space). this stuff is seriously profound, and you're able to change your bodymind in profound ways that mightn't be obvious at first
(that's probably not due to meditation, but to exercising 3½ hours a week
also, wow i have a lot of physical energy. it's making it hard to concentrate on intellectual work—my body wants to move constantly.
having small “this feels like mdma” type moments during listening to techno & dancing. who knew that ~1000 hours of meditation could have an effect?
the last twt was brought to you by me listening to a podcast from two old german hackers talking about blockchain
i hope that after i've aged, I will approach technology with the mindset of either “how can i use this to make cool shit” or “how can i make this technology safer”.
niplav attempting to get cancelled by the physics community: attempt 1
it's actually the case that dark matter is just consciousness. think about it: both are unobservable, clearly extant in large amonuts, and clearly influence this universe.
might have found the way to tune into the state where you let the tension/horniness/anxiety/pain/frustration do its thing down/in/over there in the body/space around me
of course I try to be hot, but within reason — I don't want the playing field to be the Kronecker delta
Wikipedia article on Banach spaces: “Maurice René Fréchet was the first to use the term »Banach space« and Banach in turn then coined the term »Fréchet space.«” that is very cute.
there are two types of panpsychism, and they can be distinguished by asking “if i shatter this glass, will it feel pain?”. one answers "yes", the other answers "no clue, but probably not"
the adiabatic sutra, the inframeasure sutra, the acausal sutra
everybody being mad about pregnant man emoji, but im just happy emojis became horny with the biting lip one
listening to the last 80k podcast i realize that there's a lot of α left in dvcs.
the silence prickles, a mind too fast for meaning, unwrapping my thoughts
Your model of Eliezer Yudkowsky is faster than you at precommitting to not swerving.
See also “A Chronicle of the Bay Area Cults”, Vol. 2, pg. 773-776.
I have not looked at pictures of naked robots in quite a while.
I can't stand it when people criticize Scott Alexander, whose knowledge of all things is unimpeded, deity of deities, excelling the Ruler of Gods, excelling Brahmā, fearless in the possession of the four kinds of perfect confidence, wielder of the ten powers, and all-seer with unobstructed knowledge.
everybody talking about harambe being the moment reality broke. for me it was the debacle with communist subreddits banning catgirl comics.
“Space Romans! Sandalpunk! The EU is just a semantic anagram of SPQR!”
what's the cardinality of the set containing all uncomputable reals?
why does my latin anki vocab deck contain a card for rhodium, an element discovered in 1803‽
lecturer is describing von Neumann as an economist, which, yeah, isn't entirely incorrect, but…
i am very ready to start a lesswrong shitstorm by asking for “a good textbook on causal inference, unlike the Pearl one”
first option in the multiple choice quiz is “none of the above”. don't know what to think about this tbqh
you are a successful person who has started recently reading lesswrong, i am a novel rodent control agent
“i admire your optimism”=“wow, you are way more r-worded than i thought”
saying “without loss of generality” is a great way to hide bullshit in a proof. i have applied it many times with huge success
all the characters in the Kullback-Leibler divergence are actually dead
get yourself a girl who can pronounce the name of halley's comet correctly
today i gave a guy with a great beard a compliment. ~10 minutes later he spotted me, walked up to me and gave me a protein shake :-D
TIL that there's no flag emoji, there are “regional indicator symbols”, which are basically letters that are combined into two-letter codes for countries.
It is completely within your right to not have kids if you don't want to. It is completely within your right to have kids if you want to.
pepe extending hand to wojak meme for embedded vs. dualistic agents
the filter is not just having read marx, it is having read marx and still understanding him
For me, it always makes me feel better to look at the CVs of similar bloggers and see how little they've accomplished in comparison. I'm proud of my posts and my accomplishments, and I'm not going to h
instead, just dump the dead bodies of your genocide victims into the nitrogen and let them sit around as symbols of your triumph
i am always surprised about how deep wikipedia is. yesterday i got lost in the paleontology section. human knowledge is deep
45% that it's just intelligence that's causally upstream of this: https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1484183174573744142
I may not be an autist, but I am definitely with the autists
the name Allosaurus is really funny to me for some reason. I imagine two biologists standing over a set of giant bones, and one saying to the other “Yeah, I think this is a different kind of lizard than what we usually have to deal with.”
it annoys me way too much, it shuold be Caelum Conterrens Est. Latin is SOV
i think that every language should have a unary - and + operator, and that those should be idempotent. sign flipping should be done by multiplication with -1.
the repugnant conclusion turns around: “It's too full here, let's go home.”
a hedonium shockwave, a utility monster and the repugnant conclusion go into a bar.
synthesis: the reason why african americans commit more crimes is genetic, but responsible are the genes from the white slavers in their ancestry
also no simple latex macro for the symbol for conditional independence ⫫
doesn't evoke the image of being wrong to me, much rather some equanimous exploration
beautiful though is that errare meant “to wander, to stray” originally
the IPA for tous bas (“very small/silent”) is /tu ba/ :-D
“ainsi: thus, so as.” yeah. hm. i will definitely remember that
every romance language has like three different words for “as”, “like” and “how”, and i can't tell them apart FOR THE LOVE OF GOD
ĉiu volas vojaĝi al la aja, neniu ŝatas la mala versiono :-/
from now on, i will use whenever abbreviating the Fast Fourier Transform
multimodal languages (subjects are spoken, verbs are gesticulated, adjectives & adverbs are grimaced)
enjoy the once-in-a-while outages of schelling.pt, gives my brain room to think :-D
well, what if my values include a constraint that my values shouldn't be optimized by an outside optimizer?
I need to find evidence for/against the claim that there was a training run of GPT-2 that maximized negative log-loss – I've heard it a couple of times on the internet and already spread the meme myself, but I haven't seen it in a paper or blogpost
@movq "How does one interpret those numbers? Does it mean that people usually died at about 30 years or is that really an average, meaning lots of children died but those who survived still reached something like 70 years?" -> It's the mean, so there is a lot of bias in there w/r to infant mortality. I don't know about median age of death.
mathematics is the science of the infinite, computer science is the science of the finite
what kind of job does one do if one is exceptionally motivated to (and reasonably good at) organising physical objects?
alternative formulation of orthogonality hypothesis: the size of the space of possible goals for an agent correlates positively, rather than negatively, with an agent's optimization power
note: the previous twt does not assert the equivalence of these ideas.
The Orthogonality Hypothesis is obviously true, the Factored Cognition hypothesis is obviously false, and who can tell about the Fundamental Theorem of Finite Factored Sets?
what is the value of knowing the action of a more powerful optimizer in a single universe-state?
kind of insane that the average life expectancy in 1800 was nearly half as much as the one in the country with the lowest life expectancy today (28.5 years then, 50.7 years today in Lesotho)
limited wireheaders seem safe but useless (modulo experimentability)
one might argue that we have huge amounts of uranium and other radioactive elements in the earth's crust already, and since we only extract energy from nuclear energy, putting the waste back should make the earth less dangerous, not more. but the isotopes produced in nuclear energy have shorter half-life and are probably more poisonous than the uranium that was there before, even if they produce less radioactivity over the long run
every wisepost can (but doesn't have to) be credited to carl shulman
yes, I'm in favour of a combination of fusion power and solar (dyson sphere)
father (pointing at night sky): one day this all will be yours, son.
just to make clear: people who actually identify as attack helicopters are unironically valid
the hardest sci-fi is just 22 pages of differential equations describing the dynamics of Omohundro sludge
this is the worst meme: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/daily-struggle
maybe elites appear incompetent because they're mostly trying to prevent AI disaster behind the curtains? perhaps that's why GPT-4 hasn't appeared yet – they coordinated not to do it.
on the other hand, induction has also never worked before for anti-inductionists, so they might try it.
lol, just realised that standard AI risk is just environmental disaster risk amped up to 10^(10^10), only that the direct perpetrator isn't humanity (we're only the proximate perpetrator). huh
what,,, you are trying to do good? how about I complain about you wanting to do good, and accuse you of being evil, even though on further questioning I would agree your actions are at worst net-zero?
not a big fan of retributive justice, but considering the fact that mosquitoe-borne diseases have killed half of all humans that have ever lived, we might consider exterminating the fuckers just because they deserve it.
people who use kilowatt-hours of something should go f**k themselves
collecting large STEM datasets for training huge models a good step for avoiding human models?
beating the ender dragon in minecraft with dying <100 times (but arbitrary training on video beforehand) seems like a nice candidate for another fire alarm (I wonder whether people would panic then, or whether that challenge is already AI-complete)
paradises, peacocks, peaches and palimpsests! Prussians, prowlers plus plumous penguins, priestess parks principles – priceless.
the existence of competence porn implies the existence of competence horniness
a bunch of money in celestial futures: long on angels, but the bulk put into ein sof
censors will censor complaints about being censored. therefore we should complain about censorship all the time – once those complaints disappear, we know things are going downhill.
“= I've been waiting for this for years. I don't want to join in what I read is supposed to be a highly competitive work environment. But I am impressed by the vision and potential of your approach.” Pretty much my reaction to new many EA stuff.
“Two men in mirror saws the edge of time For real or woe, we bury the grass and raise the” cryptic
Hah, tweet-like-me.xyz with my old twitter handle is great. “Agreed. Should we therefore call for »epsilon umeshisms«?”
a model that gives a probability distribution over 12 orders of magnitude is good and brave and we need more of it.
@alip "Br em hlk rmnnd, Fkrdm, bkldryrum! Ben br bk ucuyum, Kvg verm hlkn, Bkldryrum te, Vrn benm frkm ! #sydbx" -> Aoe iiiu! Iyou eiau üuiu yäiiö. Äuuuůǒ ēēiyou #ïïïyae
i remember having quite strange & unusual qualia as a child (kind of hard to describe & varied, i remember 2 specifically (not just the old “having more imagination” or “being easier to frighten”, but on a similar level as déja vu)), but these have faded over time as i went through adolescence. i wonder whether this is common. perhaps i should write that up, together with a rough description of those qualia
I'm not an intellectual, I'm just a guy who likes to f**k.
@(frogorbits.com) "@niplav interesting, it seems like you uploaded at least two weeks worth of posts sometime between yesterday and right now" -> Yes. I have changed my interaction with the internet a little bit – uploading/downloading in batches, not constantly online, to prevent my attention becoming even more damaged than it is now.
gonna start crediting Carl Shulman for some of my ideas, seems trendy right now
Niplav Yushtun, treasurer of the “Clone John von Neumann a Million Times” party
impact measures depend on, rather than specify, inaction baselines
meditation techniques have inbuilt anti-abuse mechanism if they reduce agency and/or wanting
basin of corrigibility seems to be a reasonably large crux for prosaic alignment vs. miri debates
nice bullet you got there. would be a shame if someone were to…… bite it
metis, doxa, episteme, gnosis, techne – did I forget anything?
left not as good at babble as it used to be? more pruney, definitely
no canonical universal turing machine for solomonoff induction
rational people can use very irrational people as babble generators in conversations, if the rational people are high prune (which they usually are).
cannibalistic respectability cascades in the water supply
approached a girl on saturday. the approach itself was nothing special, & i got rejected as expected. BUT I know understand what all those guys mean with femininity. this girl was dripping with it. she even gave me a compliment (“you have beautiful eyes”) after rejecting me. damn
how come nobody takes the view seriously that coordination is eternally hard on all levels?
todo: find some nice population axiologies where the bound is a parameter
makes me update towards the awfulness of ancestral environment
ancestral social environment probably most comparable with today's high school – everybody is very near each other a lot of the time, high amounts of common knowledge. differences: existence of age gaps in AE, more common tasks
gridworlds scenario with corrigible/noncorrigible subagents
https://www.lesswrong.com/s/7CdoznhJaLEKHwvJW/p/LfGzAduBWzY5gq6FE uses color really well in proofs. I will need to copy that.
forecasting questions can be divided into “we have an indicator, let the people forecast it” and “we have a question, let's find an indicator/indicators to concretise it”
Gotami said: “why is experience bad so often?” Upon hearing this, the nun got enlightened.
even an ASI would defer to an even smarter version of itself. does this solve the problem of fully updated deference?
amazing they managed to get double-blind RCTs through asymmetric justice
christianity has been bad for sexuality, do other religions fare better? monotheistic ones don't seem to
(yes, I know the thought experiment doesn't come from buridan)
“considered harmful” is not about harm: an opinionated review is all you need
if MDMA is libido-enhancing for women, and libido-diminishing for men, then that points at an important joint between male and female sexuality.
philosophical bullets i'm not (yet) willing to bite: illusionism, accepting the repugnant conclusion.
“showing that you care” type signalling depends on the sunk cost fallacy; or, there was selection pressure against the sunk cost fallacy (modulo reputation effects)
Robin Hanson is pretty good evidence for the Orthogonality Hypothesis
I dislike it when people use two en dashes for an em dash
wondering whether non-compartmentalization is a result of monotheism
putting myself on a list by googling various bioinfohazards
6fe54e3e669470cf6b3b371149716d06704beda48a0ca553f45cf4a913edd180
preposterous to assume that mathematical objects are real
“those motherfuckers actually read what I write. lmao” – Nick Land
it's important to remember: people rarely fundamentally change
the success of discord and its consequences have been a disaster for online information flow
guy who is building AGI on a discord server with his buddies instead of getting himself a girlfriend
someone (not me) should try to learn the 1k most common words in as many languages as possible
Let A be the set of AI alignment complete problems. What is the problem a /∈ A so that solving a maximally delays the development of AGI? What is a, weighted by how hard/desirable it is?
Yes, I can shoehorn interpreting extropianism into every poem by Schiller. This is going to be a regular thing.
This is obviously about O'Neill cylinders, empathetic pearcean valence, and the supercooperation cluster
Was den großen Ring bewohnet / huldige der Sympathie / zu den Sternen leitet sie / wo der Unbekannte thronet
chopping wood and carrying water: an endocrinological approach
I think I understand 5-10 now. It basically says “Let's say I jumped out of the airplane. I would only do that if I had a parachute. So, any version of me that jumps out of the airplane has a parachute. Therefore, if I jump out of the airplane, I'll have a parachute. Let's jump out of the airplane!”
status-acquisition more anti-inductive than money-acquistition?
@frogorbits.com "@niplav Speaking of ontologies, you’ve heard of https://www.liberaugmen.com/, right?" -> Yes, I've seen Pressman shill it, but I haven't looked at it too closely. I have the intuition that it won't tell me that much new stuff, but that's just an impression
probably similar to solomonoff, just in the number of variables, and without the computability aspect (since we know that prop-formulas can be evaluated in exponential time)
what is a good prior over sentences in propositional logic?
Surely people have thought about this, but is it so useful to include proofs in textbooks?
much lower than we'd expect from naively extrapolating just to the increased lifespan.
discount rates seem to spring mostly from being sure of ones own death. beings without aging would have extremely low discount rates, I think?
major difference between updating on evidence vs. morals: we know that a bayesian is converging (monotonically?) towards truth with each piece of evidence, while with moral progress, it seems likely that we are not bounded in how wrong our updates can be (even if we grant that the arc bends towards justice in the end). we might need to escape moral local maxima. therefore, it seems good to preserve option value.
every permutation is a bijection, not every bijection is a permutation. this wasn't obvious to me!
I can often distinguish sympathetic mockery from sneering mockery, even with relatively litlte context. I wonder why – what am I picking up on? What is the distinct way of making fun of someone you actually like vs. don't like?
i'm sure people have studied this: maybe strategically voting iteratively reaches a fixed point in which point report their actual preferences?
Whether to invest in stocks is moral tracks with whether general economic growth is moral.
A: “X is number”. B: “Thats not true, X is not number”. If B doesnt provide an alternative number (or an explanation of why a number is not applicable here), Im often more inclined towards believing A.
2x3: {lives in social/physical reality}×{views things generally as positive/zero/negative sum}. To be honest, I think there's relatively few people in social positive sum reality frames.
the counterpoint would be that I'm already begging the question with that attitude, though.
maybe that's my queasiness around emotional arguers: they share beliefs more than evidence, and nearly never models
sharing beliefs < sharing evidence < sharing models < sharing ontologies
Just because things are impossible doesn't mean they wouldn't be good
huh, txtnish seems to have problems with linebreaks & unicode;.
twt is better because I can pronounce it like twit, which sounds a bit like “twat”, which is an insult and therefore better.
@hecanjog "I can see the sinewave of my own mood skimming through past twtxts..." ▁▂▄▅▆▅▄▂▁▂▄▅▆▅▄▂▁▂▄▅▆▅▄▂▁
hardmode as much things as you can, ordered by importance. easymode the rest.
if you're weird, spending time around non-weird people is not going to make you more normal. but if you spend time with marginally less weird people, you're probably going to become less weird.
@hecanjog "Maybe Satoshi was an anti-capitalist after all?" -> Why do you think that?
@movq "Random thought: Would be great if you could do for i in ...; do something "$i" & done ; wait in a Shell script, but with the Shell only spawning one process per CPU." -> Interesting which annoyances stay in the back of the head – I'd never articulated this, but it's absolutely true that this would be great.
humiliating how long it took me to realise that the Metamorphosis by Kafka was about disability.
violation of schelling point as indicators of antimemetic infestation.
@off_grid_living "Beautiful sunny day today, at Dululu." <3
@hecanjog "Just discovered an unsaved vim buffer sitting in a local tmux session I forgot about for days now. Yikes. At least it was easy to remember where I left off. :)" -> Hopefully something important
female spiders eat males after mating bc males won't provide for offspring, so they might as well provide nutrients for the mother
Annoyance: it is the exception, rather than the norm, that taking away options from someone helps them.
The last thing ever felt was a medium-surprised “huh.”, as when one comes across a novel, but not very surprising new fact. After August 23rd 2039 11:34, nothing ever happened in an awareness again.
@mox "so much is different now, i feel like i'm in a completely different place then when i was writing here last" -> Welcome back
@adi "@niplav Your reasoning is that if Zeus would create mistresses he would create too many people?" -> Nope, that he wouldn't be able to control them (since they are only slightly less powerful than him), and “you cannot put down what you have conjured up”
"@niplav There are no expectations when you're honest. Expectations and honesty don't mix." -> I honestly wasn't expecting that answer :)
@jlj "@niplav Fascinating. :-) Suspect #<RMS https://twt.nfld.uk/search?tag=RMS> would have a violent physical reaction -- accompanied by some salty language -- after even a moment's contemplation of life under such complicity. :-D" -> He is a very unreasonable man <3
@alip "We are calling for Richard M. Stallman to be removed from all leadership positions, including the GNU Project. https://rms-open-letter.github.io/" highly contextual/simulacrous memeplexes exclude high-variance impact neuroatypicals, nobody thinks about incentives?
i think that this becomes a bigger issue with more options in a survey?
for this reason, don't expect consistent opinions from the percentages in survey results!
i think one can't really infer inconsistencies from survey data all that often (as in “n% of people think X, and m% of people think y, but those are incompatible”). if n% of people say X (m% say Y), and 100-n% of people say ¬X (and 100-m% say ¬Y), and X and Y are incompatible, then the groups that say X and Y only must overlap with (X-50)+(Y-50) percent, which is often not that much.
https://hotelconcierge.tumblr.com/post/113360634364/the-stanford-marshmallow-prison-experiment probably wrong, iq predictive, but marshmallow test is (apparently?) not
@(frogorbits.com) "@niplav Seems like most of the (radical) life extension people are interested in adding years to their lives, but agnostic about adding life to their years. “Be old longer” doesn’t appeal to a lot of people." -> I disagree, the people who i know that are interested in life extension look to me more engaged in life than the ones who are not (though that hinges on definitions of ”adding life to their years”). i agree that “adding life to your years” is underappreciated, though.
@(frogorbits.com) I hope that didn't come off too mean :-/
@(frogorbits.com) @niplav "I sign a lot less stuff these days now that my phone can pretend to be a credit card. Also: an impostor with a quantum computer can’t pretend to sign documents on my behalf…" -> It's good that pen signatures are completely unfakeable. They're unbelievably reliable. We can't just copy & photoshop around the edges. Better worry about those definitely-soon-to-exist quantum computers that might crack cryptography.
look at me! Im Moldbug! I want to appoint $PROGRESSIVE_ICON as king/queen!
when forecasting, babble 10 unexpected things that might derail the forecast
aversion to carrying out actions that increase my prediction error
@adi "I usually seen the opposite. Women are more interested in longevity and happy that studies show that they live more than men." -> I probably could have been clearer: It seems to me that women are on average much less interested in life-extension (methods beyond usual health advice such as the old “exercise, eat vegetables”) than men. This might just be founder/sampling bias (life extension comes out of the relatively male dominated libertarian/techno-optimist cluster). Actually, maybe there's just a variance thing here: median man cares less about his longevity than the median woman, but the variance for men is higher.
@jlj "A good read: Why I find longtermism hard -- […]" -> Interesting! I don't particularly share that emotional intuition (although my bias probably cuts the other way: I am more moved by interesting projects, and more interesting problems probably also less neglected)–I generally find most problems other people find salient not very moving at all (although probably equally strongly moved by extremely near suffering compared to other people, but with a stronger emotional distance discount). EA makes sense in a very different way to me (phenomenologically, probably closest to philosophical high valence states it evokes).
my wish: textbooks are published together with anki flashcards
The epistemic commons are worth protecting. Go and do your signalling with donations or fashion.
I get very squeamish when people are insistent on me saying “X is Y”. It's usually a bad sign.
Getting laid before the age of 21 is a great predictor for becoming a utilitarian vs. a negative utilitarian.
Do people who only communicate in ASL have tiny hands as an internal monologue?
If you want somebody to help you, they should participate in the loss/gain of their helping to the degree of effect.
Audiobook not so great because they don't pause automatically if I lose focus, books do.
There is a universe not far from ours where people signal wealth mostly through effective charitable donations.
Possible climate change intervention: Improve performance of widely used but neglected open source projects.
I'm skeptical about having a model of utility actually being sufficient to solve optimizers curse. isn't that just kicking the can down the road, finding something that fools both your utility and your utility model?
@jlj "Anyone running Urbit? Thinking about having a play with a comet. ☄🌒" -> Just as @movq has problems with his reading queue, I have problems with my "things to explore" queue. I even bought a planet a while back, but haven't had time to dive into the extradimensional madness of the urbit system. Subjective impressions & reviews highly anticipated!
People who don't create their own religions are incredibly suspect.
how highly evolved a human is can be measured by how small their little toe is
The wise man bowed his head and said solemnly: "There is in fact no difference between aesthetics and ethics (normativity and morality). You imbecile. You fucking moron."
Either you die a good person, or you get old enough to see yourself turn into an Omohundro monster.
@jlj "@niplav Hadn't heard of this; thanks for the tip! Been getting lost in your text reviews; the Benatar piece piqued my interest: I'd been reading a critique of his earlier work -- in Overall's Why Have Children? -- that really wasn't up to scratch. Now I'm reading about pure replicators, which is a new concept, to me. :-)" -> Nice :-) Looking over my text reviews, they're not quite finished (especially the Benatar one), so take it with a grain of salt
proposal: let's ignore 2020 data when trying to argue about anything
@prologic “we should fight for IRC more” another slack “Definition: Slack. The absence of binding constraints on behavior.” https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/09/30/slack/
@iolfree "I just typed in 'censorship' on pinterest and that is also completely banned." https://i.imgflip.com/1ppi4p.jpg
shoot me if i ever say that X should require Educational Attainment Y
felt really tense around a maybe 4cm² area there, slowly disappeared during the sit
yesterdays session: collecting dullness (?, maybe addictive energy is a better name) at the spot where the nose begins between the eyes, then concentrating on it
challenge for qualia relationism: it seems plausible that for a relation between two qualia to be established to actually create the quality of the experience, they should occur at near points in time. however, people in great pain don't usually at the same time seem to recall memories of especially pleasurable moments.
(cont): qualia relationism: the properties of qualia are defined by their relations to other qualia (but distinguish ordinal rankings for properties of qualia without a zero-point from cardinal properties of qualia without a zero-point). E.g., the hedonic treadmill is not accidental, but a deep fact of the universe.
(me making up words): qualia internalism: the properties of a quale are internal to the quale, and therefore the properties of different qualia can be projected onto a cardinal scale with zero point.
@jlj "Wow. I think much of what drew me to zettlekasten -- and then letting it languish :-( -- really belongs in Anki." <3 i have only used SRS for ~3 months now, so I'm not sure how long i'll continue
@pbatch "Writing a "tweet" is low-friction, and the medium forces you to chunk out ideas into (mostly) self-contained thoughts." <3
Intellectualize your problems so you will become bored of them.
Is there a german word for the situation where somebody jokingly asks for the german word for an obscure phenomenon, and some Germans half-ironically half-sincerely trying to come up with words to describe the phenomenon?
Tactic: Salty chips (Salty chips that make you buy water as a general pattern).
“Everyone who had serious philosophical conundra on that subject just, you know, died, a generation before. The Bitchun Society didn't need to convert its detractors, just outlive them.”
Long Now thinking applied: Introducing the LGBT+ pride millenium!
I wonder why it isn't more common for parents to give their children courtship advice. Maybe it is and I don't know enough anthropology?
If hell exists, then it is reserved for those who don't rebel against it.
Good/quick life extension technology would, for the first 2/3 decades, decrease the average age of death, since more people would die young in accidents etc. than of old age.
Different utilitarian approaches to COVID-19 vaccination order, by order of complexity: Maximize {probability of infectionprobability of counterfactual death, probability of infectionexpected life years lost, probability of infectionexpected severity of illness, probability of infectionexpected severity of illness+probability of infecting n others*fudging for spreading}
It matters how many life years are lost in car crashes, not how many lives.
Several levels: Achievable with: • Current computing power \ • Engineering-realistic computing power \ • Physically possible computing power \ • Unlimited but finite computing power \ • Infinite computing power \ • (?) Hypercomputation
bootstrap loading icons are spinning clockwise in their RTL cheatsheet. heh.
@lucidiot "nuclear realtor" I like this twtxt. [meta: I guess I'll often just reply with "I like this" or <3, although perhaps liking could be a primitive. I'll do it rarely enough to not clutter my timeline tho]
my plan would involve writing the code for a seed asi and giving it a completely senseless goal, such as maximizing the number of paperclips & spreading as far as possible. this would benefit no one & cause untold damage. i will take no questions
Do you think kantbot will come here when he realizes this is where the cryptids are?
I'm slightly concerned by the selection pressure against meditation
@adi “@niplav What kind of thinking?” Leaning towards explicit abstract reasoning, though, if I would be pressed.
Riffing off of Mechtild of Magdeburg, yes, sex may be a mystical act towards god, but it's a blind idiot alien god :-^
@adi “@niplav What kind of thinking?” Nearly everything, I guess? More concretely: What falls into the category of whatever spans {deciding where to sit, deciding whether to blame someone else for something, catching a ball, picking a good career, proving a theorem}.
“There is no single trick that gives you the truth immediately. You actually have to think.” is a mischaracterization. This thing “thinking” has a structure, and we want to discover that structure, optimally mathematically.
DSA DSA=Democratic Socialists of America decisive strategic advantage
gf that is actually just function composition disguised as your romantic partner
curl https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jointwt/we-are-twtxt/master/we-are-twtxt.txt | grep -v '^niplav ' | field 2 | xargs curl ^/dev/null | grep niplav here we go
@prologic "What the hell does cartesianly mean?! 😳" Me inventing a new adjective for "there is only a one-way flow of information" ^^
Maybe I could write a script that trawls the we-are-twtxt list and notifies me when I'm mentioned–the name should be unique enough.
Disadvantage of twtxt: less incentives to reply to people since it's not certain they'll ever see it. My current solution to that is to follow everybody on the we-are-twtxt and only unfollow if they twt a lot of stuff I'm not interested in
One should probably have a bunch of hard-drives with random content (not some files, but really random) lying around to being able to believably glomarize towards law enforcement
@felixp7 "Yo, crypto-heads. Encrypted communication doesn't protect your privacy. Laws …" I guess crypto-heads are often happy with acknowledging this, but also arguing that e.g. deniable crypto is a useful way out here (and, of course, just doing illegal stuff if it gets really rough).
@(frogorbits.com) "@niplav Re: rats: YOU ARE NOT ALONE" https://i.ytimg.com/vi/2sbUDWU3Fjk/maxresdefault.jpg
I'm cartesianly divided from twitter, to which I'm often responding. We're back to watching television again.
lief as attire will not save you. Come back to LW we miss you. Please don't stray too far from the light. 89/89
and if you truly get down to it, there's no ground for solomonoff induction, because your choice of TM is completely arbitrary! Furthermore, what does it even mean for bayesianism to be a coherent epistemology‽ How do we decide wha 84/89
nosilverv sits down next to me. We look at each other, still panting. I notice how his hands are still dusty. When I look up again, his eyes are glowing with a little smirk. He leans ov 73/89
ut in the desert,,, the vibe reigns. When it is not in check, we tremble. We sweat ourselves down into a negative kegan stage. We gendlin-focus on all the wrong things. The meditators see blue mushrooms in desire for deliverance. Fanged noum 51/89
nd in lemma 3.11 you can clearly see that ℝ∪lim_{k→∞} ℤ^{k} is homeomorphically convex. Furthermore, per Gibbard-Satterthwaite, you 32/89
bang. bang. bang. bang. Caledonian2 looks down on me. “What now, punk? Where is your overcoming of bias now?” “FUCK YOU” I scream. I lift 13/89
It all starts back in the days, when people started posting on SL4. As it turns out, 2/89
My definite stance on the rat/postrat discourse. Strap in. 1/89
A bit tempted to trying to dovetail to find the shortest brainfuck quine.
Some people, paradoxically, can help the world most by first helping themselves. Often enough, those people are the ones most pre-disposed to helping the world.
In other words: you can expect the mistakes you make to be normally distributed around 0 if you're not trying.
Unless the world has been adversarially structured against you, you can do better by just trying. This holds both for bayesianism & consequentialism.
Infuriating: With the Euro, 50 ct. coins are bigger than 1€ coins.
Umeshism: If you can follow your own ethical rules, your own ethical rules are not demanding enough.
Buy some space near the sun, because it's going to be worth a lot when a Dyson sphere gets built.
Greta Thunberg also is a nearly complete creation of the media, in the sense that we would never know about her if it were not for media.
Greta Thunberg falls into the same narrative category as Malala Yousafzai, Sophie Scholl and Jeanne D'Arc.
[Questions About] versus [Moral Arguments From] Coherent Ethical Simplicity
I think I understand bigint multiplication now. Not sure if I've reinvented the Karatsuba algorithm
(Hanson voice) “I am not owned! I am not owned” I shout as I am being consumed by grey goo
Oh yeah, you know pain? Have you ever had your contact lenses on the wrong way, with ~½ a dioptrie difference?
tangle ←→ distangle ←→ entangle ←→ untangle ←→ disentangle ←→ endistangle ←→ disuntangle ←→ endisuntangle
If you're right about this, how could you make money with it?
Project idea: search for books that are most effective at converting people from one ideology to another, for any two ideologies.
Inner alignment is a problem when you train the reward function & the policy function jointly.
My internal monologue is somewhere in my right hemisphere, more on the outside than the inside. Sort of above my right ear.
https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/12#fn1 is extremely important, but people fall into the anthropomorphization trap again and again
Actually, embedded agency is a super good name for a movement, and I could see it replacing the horrid 'rationalism' over time. Plus, 'embags' is a really good abbreviation.
I've always found the 'suicide is selfish' argument weird. Someone is making the most important (and most tragic) decision in their life, and people are talking about themselves?
If you're an average man, my calculation tells me that freezing your sperm & getting a vasectomy is worth ~ in expectation (https://niplav.github.io/notes.html#Vasectomy--Sperm-Freezing-CostBenefit) (in the US, caveat caveat caveat)
@pbatch "that's it. I'm sticking to this txtnish client." Solid choice.
Some people on the LW team are increasing their Brier scores pretty hard right now bc of the number of orders for the books
“Subreddits could achieve this without a schism” heh (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7c47vjta3mavY3QC/is-science-slowing-down?commentId=e9T3hF9957pT5h2ex), two years ago
Take all the bacteria in the world and dump them into a big hole. How does this look like?
Evolution is going to destroy everything you love and then piss on the shards.
Would online dating without images lead to deeper, more human connections? I.e. only descriptions of people. If yes, is it different because of molochian reasons? More beautiful people have no problem showing their faces, so not showing ones face is seen as a low-status signal at some point. Counter: The idea of deeper, more human connections is in itself flawed, most mating choices are the result of a combination of class/status signals and physical attractiveness anyway.
Most advice is basically “become better at signaling”, or it is itself signaling.
Signaling/countersignaling are nuclear weapons for nerdy thinking: they explain 99% of social behavior in an easy, slightly demeaning way.
Alternative names for 'rationalism': map-making, cartography
Alternative names for 'anarcho-capitalism': propertarianism, voluntaryism, voluntarism
There are two types of computer programmers: Those who think that computers are the problem, and those who think that programmers are the problem.
Not too nice. Not too nasty. Not either to nice or too nasty. Not neither too nice nor too nasty.
there are a lot of things that disappear when applied to themselves partially. principle of charity, tolerance, libertarianism in CEV. but, being completely X lets you retain them. (being maximally tolerant, maximally charitable towards everything, maximally libertarian towards other value systems).
A strange mental motion in AI alignment is thinking about agency in non-agential ways.
Trying to move things with your mind might be good meditation practice.
"Which is for people, that is for people and objects." -> From a /lit/ thread.
Classical philosophy: Disputing definitions. Analytic philosophy: Disputing definitions, rigorously. Continental philosophy: Disputing definitions, poetically.
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